Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Krishna River Basin, India: Uncertainty and Multi-Site Analysis

In Peninsular India, the Krishna River basin is second largest river that overutilized and more vulnerable to climate change. The main aim of this study determine future projection monthly streamflows in for Historic (1980–2004) Future (2020–2044, 2045–2069, 2070–2094) scenarios (RCP 4.5 8.5, respectively), with help Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT model parameters are optimized using SWAT-CUP during calibration (1975 1990) validation (1991–2003) periods observed discharge data at 5 gauging stations. Cordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) provides projections meteorological variables different high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCM). Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) used analyze uncertainty associated within multiple GCMs simulating streamflow. REA-projected validated IMD-simulated data. results indicate REA performs well throughout basin, exception area near River’s headwaters. For RCP scenario, simulated monsoon streamflow values Mantralayam gauge station 716.3 m3/s per month historic period (1980–2004), 615.6 future1 (2020–2044), 658.4 future2 (2045–2069), 748.9 future3 (2070–2094). Under lower about 50% winter. Pondhugala stations by 30 when compared under 4.5. When other two periods, trends show a decreasing trend first period. managers developing water management can use recommendations made as preliminary information adaptation practices basin.